In the opening race on the card we have considered the alternatives to the favourite, with Captain Conan being then most likely danger but we feel that, barring an accident, Dynaste will maintain his unbeaten run over fences and is impossible to oppose. Many will see him as one of the bankers of the week and it’s unlikely he’ll still be 7/4 come the off.
In the 4;00 Ballynagour has been the subject of sustained ante post support since landing a bign handicap at Warwick for his new yard last month (2m4). The form of that race has worked out well since and looks one who could be ahead of the assessor, albeit this is a typically competetive renewal but he’s worth 1pt win at the current price.
In the Neptune at 2:05 we like the chances of Nicky Henderson’s Chatterbox at doubl-figure prices. He won his only bumper start at the end of last season and was pitched in against stablemate My Tent Or Yours on his hurdling debut at Newbury (2m1, heavy) when he kept on well to score by 4 1/2 lengths. MTOY has since won the valuable Betfair Hurdle off a lofty mark of 149 and followed up with a 2nd in Tuesday’s Grade 1 Supreme Novices Hurdle. Chatterbox followed up that success on his hurdling bow with another soft ground victory at Newbury last month (2m1). He again stayed on strongly for the last and the extra 4 furlongs here look sure to bring about further improvement. He will be fine on the testing ground and the only concern is the marked step up in grade. However, his defeat of My tent Or Yours looks rock solid form and, although this is a fiercely competetive contest (Pont Alexandre supposedly the Irish good thing this week, but far too short in our opinion) we feel 10/1 underestimates how good this horse could potentially be.
In the RSA at 2:40 we are prepared to chance Houblon Des Obeaux at 12/1. He was a useful handicap hurdler over staying trips and has done well over fences this season. He won his first 2 chase starts, the 2nd being a Grade 2 at Wincanton in which he jumped superbly to beat the useful Poungach by 4 1/2 lengths. He then finished 4th behind Harry Topper but has subsequently been placed in his next 3 starts. He looks to be a thorough stayer and the ground shouldn’t pose a problem. This race is usually run at a strong pace and in these conditions that will find plenty of them out. If he jumps with his usual fluency then he should still be battling on when some of his rivals had enough and we are hopeful he can outrun his odds and go close here.
Good result for us in the first with Champagne Fever obliging (advised @ 7/1 this morning). We were tempted to go with Hurricane Fly at the early price of 9/4 but having already advised Grandouet ante post we decided to stick with him. Also a little unlucky with Fruity O’Rooney as the ante post EW terms were first 4 and he finished 5th (still happy with the bet though as we got 20/1 instead of the 10/1 generally available this morning, and getting that value is the whole point of this blog).
Apologies for the recent lack of write ups (lack of a functioning laptop not helping matters) they should be back to normal tomorrow!
Champagne Fever + 7pts
Un Atout – 1pt
Fruity O’Rooney – 2pts
Grandouet – 2pts
Daily Total + 2pts
Overall Total + 32.5pts
Day of Race- Cheltenham Day 1 – 13:30 1pt win Champagne Fever 7/1, 1pt win Un Atout 13/2 (both with Bet Victor)
Nothing stands out for us today so we’ll keep the powder dry for the Festival starting Tuesday
4.00 Ffos Las- Lava Lamp 2pt win 9/4 Stan James (Best Odds), also 5/2 coral but take the best odds with Stan james
The Williams runner is a course and distance winner and won by 15 lengths last time out and is in off the same mark of 106 today with only a 7lb penalty. We dont think this will be enough to stop him today.
Another winning Saturday after 2 fantastic runs from each of the big priced selections.
Megasi led from the front to win quite comfortably in the end at 14/1 while Big Fella Thanks put in a great run finishing 2nd at an advised price of 12/1.
Profit on the day of +13pts taking the total running profit to a massive +32.5pts since the blog started in January this year.
Meganisi 14/1 generally
Not been at his best recently but is certainly capable at this trip and we think the ground will suit (despite his best form arguably coming on a much softer surface) and we’re prepared to take a chance at a big price
Big Fella Thanks 12/1 Bet Victor
Has previously won this and finished 4th and won over 2m5 last time at Wincanton from a subsequent winner. A 9lb rise makes things more difficult in a better race but a return to decent ground is a plus and we know this sound jumper will battle on to the line. Again, we feel he may just be overpriced.
3.00 Ludlow Matrow’s Lady 1pt 11/4 (best odds VCBet and Stan James)
Comes here on the back of a 38L victory at Ffos Las and runs off the same mark carrying only and extra 7lb’s. Cut in the ground no inconvenience to the selection who should relish the step up to 3m from 2m6f. In 5 starts this season he’s only been out the first 2 once when he pulled up at Doncaster in oct 2012 winning twice in that time. We expected him to be involved again today and 11/4 worth taking.
3.30 Ludlow Buck Milligan 1pt win 11/2 (best odds with VcBet)
A course and distance winner who comes here in the peak of his form having won last time out at Sedgefield. An open race as a few with chances but we feel the 11/2 on offer represents decent value.
4.00 Ludlow Big Society 1pt win 7/2 (VCBet or Betfred best odds)
Finished in first 2 in all 4 of last 4 starts so comes here in form. He carries 11st 12lb around here today but we expect he can defy that weight. Paddy Brennan takes the ride today.
Literally 5 mins after posting the horse has been pulled from the race and is now a non runner.
No other bets today.
2pt Win Quito La Roque 10/3 Stan James (best odds guaranteed)
This looks a great national trial with all 7 runners holding an entry for Aintree. We like the chances of the C Murphy trained Quito La Roque who looked back to his best 37 days ago when he destroyed a class 1 field winning by 6 and a half lengths (Roi Du Mee in 2nd that day) in ground described as soft to heavy. We expect similar ground conditions today. The selection will be giving 2lbs to W.Mullins fancied runner Prince De Beauchene today and while we may not be keen to take on Prince De Beauchene and 2012 Grand National placed Seabass over 4m4f at Aintree we are happy to take both on over 3m1f around Fairyhouse.